Concepts

The cleared band

Available

Capture describes the flagged band. The product actually sells the other one: “auto-merge what Doug cleared” is a claim about defect density among cleared PRs.

The report’s cleared-band table answers it directly: at each budget, how many PRs were cleared, how many defects slipped through (the miss rate), and the cleared band’s defect density versus merging blind — density_lift.

density_lift < 1 — clearing carries information; cleared PRs are safer than average
density_lift = 1 — Doug’s clearance is worthless; you’re merging blind

This is the trust product’s headline metric, the way capture@budget is the routing product’s. It’s also the number that decides whether an auto-merge claim would be honest at a given budget — and at tight budgets, today, it wouldn’t be. We say so.

flag cleared missed miss rate vs base 10% 4,500 ~58 86% 0.96x 20% 4,000 ~43 64% 0.80x 30% 3,500 ~29 43% 0.61x # reading: at a 30% budget the cleared band # carries 0.61× the blind-merge defect density. # honest, not yet publishable — n is small.